To be sure, China's global geopolitical objectives may in part align with Russia's. But the actions noted above indicate that at least some Chinese companies and leaders are risk averse and that China may be unlikely to provide military assistance to Russia, as some news accounts indicate, if only because the United States is likely to respond with a round of tough sanctions on China itself. Moreover, some noncompliant Chinese actions might be successfully concealed. These parts almost certainly would have come from local inventories of China's major state-owned airlines. A Russian official responsible for maintaining airplane safety disclosed that China has refused to provide spare parts to Russia's commercial airline fleet (Boeing and Airbus had already announced a suspension of parts sales to Russia) the official has since been fired for his public statements about China.
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Of course, tracking the full extent of this economic disengagement can be difficult, since Chinese firms are usually reluctant to make public statements. Fuyao Glass Industry Group, made well-known by the Oscar-winning 2019 documentary "American Factory," also shifted part of its production in Russia back to China. Geely, the owner of Volvo, and Lenovo, the Chinese computer maker, have reportedly suspended exports, while TikTok, which is owned by ByteDance, has suspended service in Russia. For example, China's largest smartphone makers, which account for over 60 percent of the Russian smartphone market, including Huawei, Oppo, and Xiaomi, have drastically cut their exports, basically following the lead of Apple and Samsung. Multiple Chinese private companies have also suspended sales to Russia or are closing operations there. The New Development Bank (the so-called BRICS Bank), which is headquartered in Shanghai, made a similar announcement.
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, in which China is the largest shareholder, announced a suspension of any new lending to Russia. We believe that this is the result of a cost-benefit calculation by President Xi, who appears to be far more rational than President Putin.Ĭonsider the following: From the outset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine two major Chinese state-controlled banks have reportedly refused to provide US dollar-denominated letters of credit to finance imports from Russia. But beyond the rhetoric out of Beijing, the evidence suggests China is not acting to undermine the economic and financial sanctions on Russia and indeed has moved to support the drive to isolate Russia economically. China continues to withhold explicit criticism of the Russian invasion and may still be working to formulate a coherent response. The protracted war in Ukraine has plainly caught China off guard and led to some confusion and mixed reports about the extent to which President Xi Jinping's regime supports Moscow's offensive.
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